I speculated that there would be no Fed rate hike in September, but there will be one in December.
So I am now in line with eighty-four percent of economists as surveyed by Bloomberg (woo-hoo). They also expect an initial interest-rate increase in December, according to a survey conducted Sept. 25-28.
But an interesting monkey wrench in this is the apparent signal from the federal funds futures are perceived to be sending:
Their pricing suggests that investors see a roughly 40 percent probability of a rate rise by year end, based on an assumption that the effective funds rate will trade at the 0.375 percent mid-point of the target range following Fed liftoff. At least according to Bloomberg.
So we shall see.